2016: Major Turning Point

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Mainstream thought suffers from the illogical belief that humanity has some how tamed economic cycles. The ancient Greeks had a word for this belief that humans are masters of their own fate – hubris.

This isn’t the first time the mainstream has fallen victim to this belief and it won’t be the last. Like all things, mainstream thought is affected by the very cycles it refuses to acknowledge.

The congressional budget office, is currently predicting +1.5% annual GDP growth for the next 4 years and +2.0% annual GDP growth for the following six years. In essence, the CBO thinks the US will go the next 10 years without hitting a recession. That 10 year stretch would be the longest in history without a recession, throw in the current 7 year run, and you get a ridiculous prediction of 17 years without a US recession!  This kind of thinking isn’t just stupid, it’s dangerous.

The same mainstream group think that has failed to understand the rise of Trump and Sanders will be unprepared for what comes next. It doesn’t matter whether you agree with their platforms or not but that you understand why their platforms are gaining popularity.

Back in 2014,  I detailed how the world’s poor leadership would only increase the desperation of the global population which would then lead to the election of radical leaders. This is based on the simple but logical belief that an unhappy and desperate population would be willing to do almost anything to change the status quo.

If you open your eyes you can see these tectonic shifts happening all around you. But in order to do so, you have to question everything, and come to the conclusions on your own.

For example, for the first time in decades college students in America prefer socialism to “capitalism”.  Ironically, the same people that don’t trust the current system still fall victim to its beliefs. The truth is, young college students don’t hate capitalism, they hate the current system, which mainstream thought tells them is capitalism. And this is exactly why these young college students come out in droves for Bernie Sanders for he is promising them a new system, and they “hope” that it will be better than their current one.

The same argument can be made for Trump’s supporters and the tea party before them. The common man on both sides of the aisle is greatly displeased with the way things are run and wants radical change, at any cost, almost irregardless of the platform they are voting for.

So here we find ourselves, one giant interconnected society unaware that we are on the verge a major turning point. The ground beneath our feet has turned, and the permanently high plateau of constant growth is quickly eroding. Unfortunately people continue to underestimate the speed at which plateaus change into cliffs.

Arguments can be made that a previous year was a turning point in this post crisis era, but in 2016 I believe the linear mainstream thought will crash head first into the reality of cycles.

And so far that’s exactly what has happened. The cracks in the world economies can no longer be ignored or kicked down the road by any one central bank.

The immediate response to this situation has been a one of rejection and denial. Obama would qualify this article as a work of pure fiction. Central banks have fought and clawed and screamed at the top of their lungs that the recent market moves are pure madness.

And this sort of behavior is to be expected. I remember when I was a young boy and discovered Hogwarts wasn’t real. That was a tough time, indeed. I had long dreamed of being chosen to play quidditch for Hufflepuff, duel against dark witches and wizards, and even chase Dragons.

But whether it is a life or an idea, death is difficult for the mind to reconcile. So in some ways I empathize with the current mainstream thought, but at the same time admit that unicorns and something out of nothing alchemy remain firmly trapped in the fictional worlds of Harry Potter.

 

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