I read a lot of articles every week (virtue signal much?) and sometimes the overall message of what I read (and tweet) can get lost and cluttered in my brain (and on my twitter feed). So I came up with a brilliant idea (I actually stole it from a load of other people) to share some of the most interesting, overlooked and-
-Sorry that’s a lie. I just want to create a platform for me to share some of my more unconventional and controversial ideas. Each week, I’ll include four or five developments/articles as well as a special bonus link that is sure to be controversial. I would include a trigger warning, but I hate that phrase. The only question that you need to ask yourself is this: Would you like to know more?
1. Hold Your Horses: USD is Still King
China’s emergence over the next decade will be one of the biggest themes in macro. At times the narrative though will get ahead of itself and other times it will lag behind. In this case it is the former as Brad Setser nails the media’s and twitter’s overreaction to the news that China was considering slowing or halting its purchases of USTs altogether. China hasn’t bought much in the way of USTs lately anyways.
What no one felt like talking about (probably because it didn’t fit into the narrative) was that South Korean officials felt compelled to intervene in the FX markets to weaken their currency versus the USD. As much as people like to talk about the end of the USD’s reign and position for it…
They neglect to say how important it is to the current system of trade. China is certainly working to change that, but perhaps we should wait and see how successful its Yuan denominated oil contract is before making any judgements.
2. Macron: The EU’s New Deal Maker
Keeping in the theme of geopolitics, Macron remains a very underrated politician. He has already made great strides to revamp the French system. Continued global growth will help the French people tolerate the much needed reforms. The French dealmaker was in China this week and is also Trump’s key ally in Europe. Watch what he does and where he goes. This man is set to make France play a bigger role in global affairs.
3. China’s Growing Role in Africa:
I’m going to keep pounding my fist on the table when it comes to geopolitics. If the Chinese Yuan is going to gain market share in global trade, China will have to expand its sphere of influence. Africa the fastest growing, fastest urbanizing and youngest population on earth is a great place to target. The continent is ripe with resources and opportunity which China is not only taking advantage of but also in this case, is acting as a force for good. In a 2017 Realvision interview, Andrew Nevin argued that for Africa to succeed, its largest city, Lagos, had to succeed. China’s growing investment and presence will be an essential piece to Lagos and Africa’s success.
4. Biotech is off to a great start.
A trio of Chinese deals (notice a theme yet?) to start the year should help light a fire under M&A which in 2017 hit a paltry 25% 2015’s record. Tax cuts and profit repatriation are expected to further juice M&A action in 2018. On Thursday, $XBI marked its highest daily close since the bubble burst in the summer of 2015. And it even looks like $IBB is about to start out performing the rip roaring Nasdaq.
5. The Fire of Technology Can Also Burn Us.
It has been (re)discovered that the electromagnetic fields produced from wi-fi routers can harm life processes. In this case, the seeds that were put in a room with two wi-fi routers not only failed to grow but started to mutate. This applies not just to wi-fi routers but all forms of man made or non native EMFs from cell phones to electric motors; any form of electromagnetic radiation life on earth has not encountered on a consistent basis over the last few billion years will cause likely harm. The roll out of 5G and the electrification of our vehicle fleets are global health crises in the making. I don’t have any expectations that these technologies will be fought with any vigor until it’s too late which in the end just gives me yet another reason to be long biotech.
As a pseudo intellectual who constantly opines on things he has no business opining about (macro, geopolitics, biotech etc.) this is the kind of analysis I love most. When you can take simple, well understood and well supported ideas and apply them to entirely different fields it can be truly illuminating. After all who doesn’t like telling experts that they’re wrong. In this case, the authors show that dinosaurs and other historic creatures could not possibly survive under current gravitational forces which leads to some difficult questions about our understanding of the earth’s development and possibly even gravity itself.
DISCLAIMER: This blog is the diary of a twenty something millennial who has never stepped foot inside a wall street bank. He has not taken an economic or business course since high school (which he is immensely proud of) and has been long gold since 2012 (which he is not so proud of). In short his opinions and experiences make him uniquely unqualified to give advice. This blog post is NOT advice to buy or sell securities. He may have positions in the aforementioned trades/securities. He may change his opinion the instant the post is published. In short, this blog post is pure fiction based loosely in the reality of the ever shifting narrative of the markets. These posts are meant for enjoyment and self reflection and nothing else. So ENJOY and REFLECT!