Would You Like To Know More #2

Two weeks in a row. Let’s not make a big deal of this.

1. China leverages technology to postpone a debt deleveraging.

“I have lived in Beijing for more than 20 years, yet only in the past year have I felt on returning to London or Silicon Valley that I’m going backwards in time. For urban residents, China is increasingly a study in frictionless living. Hopping on a bike, ordering a meal from a huge range of restaurants, paying for utilities, transferring money to friends — all can be done at the touch of a button. Internet services in the west offer increasing convenience no doubt — but nothing beats the experience in China.”

China is leveraging technology more effectively than any other nation on earth apart from perhaps Latvia. China’s ability to leverage technology to engineer growth and delay a “beautiful deleveraging” becomes clearer by the day. Chinese workers have started to vote with their feet. Despite the chemically toxic atmosphere (which by the way is slowly improving), Chinese workers are returning home to participate in China’s booming innovation.

2. Technology, technology, technology

Tech is one of the most important and overlooked macro factors today.
*Pounds the table*
Within 10 years, autonomous vehicles will unlock a multi trillion dollar industry that had not previously existed. Autonomous interconnected vehicle fleets will dramatically lower the cost of driving, reduce traffic accidents, etc. you get the point, it’s fantastic and it’s not here yet but one of the things that will get it there cheap LIDAR already is or will be in a few years. The cost has already fallen 10x in the past 2 years and is expected to fall by another factor of 10 by 2020.

3. Doom and Gloom at the World Bank

You got to love this headline:

Permanently lower your hopes for the global economy, the World Bank says

Despite global GDP in 2017 beating the IMF’s expectations for the first time since the crisis, institutions remain incredibly bearish on global growth. Like the so called “goldilocks” narrative, experts are not looking at the underlying drivers that have contributed to the current environment. There’s not enough focus on the technological innovations, and improved global governance that has contributed to our increasingly positive economic environment.

4. Falling North Korea tensions defy pessimistic experts’ expectations and the “dumb Trump” narrative.

I have little doubt people are skeptical of a millennial who pontificates on geopolitics, yet you can’t argue with the ongoing positive developments. I am willing to wager my relatively high opinion of Trump further fuels those skeptical opinions. But in the end, that’s just your opinion. The facts continue to support my thesis, at what point will you change yours?

5. Wondering when not if this will scare the dollar bears?

On Friday last week, EUR/USD speculators increased their record long position even further. Despite agreeing with it, “the hot money leaving the US” narrative has become so overextended here that I now find myself joining the reluctant dollar bull camp. This is still an opinion and not a position yet, but if we see EURUSD at 1.25 soon or DXY at 87, then it will very likely become one.

And despite whatever doomsday narrative the Democrats are trying to spin, the tax cuts combined with Trump’s deregulation spree have created a much more favorable business environment. Increased investment, rising growth, and a weaker USD should spur growth in the US making capital think twice about leaving the US, at least this year.

BONUS: Get some f&*^ing sunlight.

https://twitter.com/BiotechBrainBug/status/953352665513119744

This article touches upon what my brother, the Biotech Brain Bug (and others), figured out a little while ago, sunlight is critical to human health. The nobel prize in medicine last year was awarded to the discovery of circadian rhythms which is driven primarily by our daily and seasonal exposure to sunlight. Proper signalling is critical to a well functioning body.

On top of helping with weight loss and fighting cancer sunlight exposure improves mood, and reduces stress and blood pressure. Humans don’t have a lot of hair for a reason. Get some fucking sunlight.


DISCLAIMER: This blog is the diary of a twenty something millennial who has never stepped foot inside a wall street bank. He has not taken an economic or business course since high school (which he is immensely proud of) and has been long gold since 2012 (which he is not so proud of). In short his opinions and experiences make him uniquely unqualified to give advice. This blog post is NOT advice to buy or sell securities. He may have positions in the aforementioned trades/securities. He may change his opinion the instant the post is published. In short, this blog post is pure fiction based loosely in the reality of the ever shifting narrative of the markets. These posts are meant for enjoyment and self reflection and nothing else. So ENJOY and REFLECT!

 

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